Bitcoin (BTC) has had four market cycles since its birth in 2009, from a bottom to a new peak. The cycles have ranged from over 600 days to about 1,050 days. The most recent cycle just passed 300 days, suggesting it could last another 3 to 12 months.
Bitcoin price shakes off the $157 million maturity in futures, is $12,000 the next stop?
If the price of Bitcoin remains stable for several months or potentially a year, it could accomplish two things. First, it could strengthen the fundamental ground for the next explosive bull run as seen between 2016 and 2017. Second, it could cause other crypto currencies, or altcoins, to reach new highs, as some investors predict.
Why is moving slowly upwards crucial in this phase of Bitcoin pricing?
The price of Bitcoin was just USD 3,596 in BitMEX on March 13. In just six months, BTC recorded a 220% increase, outperforming most traditional assets and indices, including gold.
The Bitcoin weekly price chart
A steep upward run of Bitcoin could increase the chances that whales, or large individual Bitcoin holders, will make a profit. When this happens, the over-leveraged nature of the futures market can result in a deep retreat due to cascading trades.
Technology stocks drive the S&P 500 to record highs as the price of Bitcoin begins to show upward signs
But if BTC gradually recovers over time and stays above the USD 10,000 support level, it could lead to a more sustainable and long-lasting upward cycle. Co-founder of 10% Holdings, Dan Tepiero, said:
„Be prepared to be patient with Bitcoin. Each upward cycle takes longer to develop and is less extreme as the absolute monetary value of the dollar increases. It can take another 6 to 12 months before the price shoots up. An obscenely high price should no longer matter. Hodlers rejoice.
For example, the last two cycles occurred around the halving of Bitcoin’s mined block reward, or halving. The second halving in Bitcoin’s history occurred in July 2016. BTC’s upward cycle reached its historic high 17 months later, in December 2017.
If Bitcoin Billionaire follows a similar trend to the post-2016 halving cycle, you could see a strong upward trend in late 2021. This would also line up perfectly with the popular stock-to-flow model that suggests the BTC price may reach six figures sometime next year.